Even in Offices, schools and colleges you will see it take over. XP is not support by Microsoft past 2011. These places uses Microsoft for support. So if they cant get support from them, they will basically be forced to update.
Considering that for businesses the use of XP Mode will be of great help to them, there is no reason for them not to update.
School students will buy a laptop to use for college at the time when the free copy of Win7 offers are out there and will get Win7 later for free. They may not use them in labs at school but you will see Win7 on almost every student machine.
Sooner or later the schools will update as well. When the software they are running is almost older than the students (At least up till middle school) and is eclipsed by 2 generations of software it isnt much time. Not to mention that with some of the new features of Win7, Bluetooth being built in and so much more, there isnt much of a reason for them not to aside from the economical aspect.
Vista is around. But not without its problems. Win7 takes what Vista did and made it 10x better. Soon after people realize that this isnt Vista and it is just as good if not better than XP, you will start to see conversion.
