MP3s could become extinct

[Harper]

http://www.crn.com.au/story.aspx?CIID=37770&eid=4&edate=20060515

MP3s could become extinct
Mobile music phones could push portable digital music players into the tar pits with the dinosaurs within five years, according to a Yankee Group report.

In the next five years, 30.3 million will switch from digital music players to mobile music phones and are more likely to pay a premium for phones with music playback function and data-related services, the researcher said.

The research group expects the digital audio player market will slide to 52 million users by 2010, down from 60 million in 2007. But the decline won't stop there.

As the US market for digital audio players becomes saturated, manufacturers will increasingly depend on replacement cycles to drive sales

According to the study, 43 percent of US digital audio player sales will be first-time purchases in 2006. This number will fall to less than 10 percent in 2008, and less than 5 percent in 2010.

Connectivity, not video features, will drive replacement cycles. The top three functions in one portable entertainment device are phone, internet access, and digital audio player, the Yankee Group report said. Only 30 percent of online respondents age 12 and up said they were interested in portable video.

Only 8 percent of those interested in portable video ranked it as the most important feature, and 19 percent included it in their top three. The ability to make phone calls remains the top function consumers.

The addition of Wi-Fi and Bluetooth connectivity will open new possibilities for content acquisition and distribution. Companies such as MusicGremlin are developing Wi-Fi-enabled digital audio players that can download content directly from an online store without the need for a PC.

Online music services also can automatically push out content to the device removing the consumer's responsibility to update content on the digital audio player. By subscribing to periodically updated play lists, consumers can have the spontaneity of radio without the commercials, Yankee Group said.

Mobile music phones, such as the Nokia N93, which includes Wi-Fi connectivity and 3G network capabilities, could offer similar services by leveraging the fixed-wireless and wide-area networks (WAN).

Forty-eight percent of both broadband and dialup respondents to the Yankee Group survey indicated that they use a portable CD player to listen to music. Eleven percent of dialup users use a digital audio player, compared with 26 percent of broadband users. As broadband penetration continues to rise and consumers increase their comfort level with digital media, digital audio players and mobile music phones will replace portable CD players.

Expect the cost for digital audio player costs in mobile phones to fall. As costs to include the music function in mobile phones decline, mobile handset manufacturers will offer mobile music phones without requiring deep subsidies from wireless network operators, the Yankee Group said.

The most expensive component needed to bring this function to phones is memory. Yankee Group estimates as of April 2006, a 2GB memory card retails for less than US$80. By comparison, a 2GB Apple Computer iPod costs US$199.

More telecommunication carriers will distribute content as the shift to one device continues, too. The two largest wireless carriers, Cingular and Verizon, offer mobile handsets that let users transfer music from their computer. Consumers could rip music from CDs or download from online music services such as the iTunes Music Store.

 

[Nubius]

man what happened to the days when a phone rang and it let you simply talk to someone.

Now people want their phones to do everything.

 

[mac_mogul]

man what happened to the days when a phone rang and it let you simply talk to someone.

Now people want their phones to do everything.

Before long, cell phones are going to do everything EXCEPT make phone calls

 

[thebleakness]

man what happened to the days when a phone rang and it let you simply talk to someone.

Now people want their phones to do everything.

Im waiting for them to have built in cloths washers, then ill buy one, untill then, im good without one.

 

[Jorsoft]

The most expensive component needed to bring this function to phones is memory. Yankee Group estimates as of April 2006, a 2GB memory card retails for less than US$80. By comparison, a 2GB Apple Computer iPod costs US$199.

Not really a good comparison since an sd card can't magically play music by itself....
Also I'm not too concerned about the whole matter. My stereos and car all play MP3's so I really don't need my phone to. I also have a 128mb Muvo but I rarely use it. Used to have it at the gym but my new gym has XM Radio so I don't bother with it.

 

[Powerslave]

man what happened to the days when a phone rang and it let you simply talk to someone.

Now people want their phones to do everything.

Well, I enjoy the feature to check what time it is. Other then that....I don't use it for anything else except, well, what it is, a phone.

 

[003]

And how much more compressed would the audio on these "music phones" be compared to a 128kbps mp3? mp3s already sound like crap (when they are under 256kbps), why would I get something that sounded like even more crap? I use lossless FLAC audio for all my music, 256kbps mp3s on my ipod.

 

[Nubius]

yeah.....anymore anything less than 320kbps bugs me but now I'm starting to get used to the lossless wav format which shows like 1400kbps when ripped from a CD.

These ideas are getting stupid. Everything has to play music these days but they are just making the quality horrible.

 

[Powerslave]

yeah.....anymore anything less than 320kbps bugs me but now I'm starting to get used to the lossless wav format which shows like 1400kbps when ripped from a CD.

These ideas are getting stupid. Everything has to play music these days but they are just making the quality horrible.

Like the sunglasses with built in mp3 player, Oakley Thumpzszzzzz.

 

[mikesgroovin]

You know, this research is all "Nancy Drew fine er roo", but has anyone thought about something like battery life? People use their MP3 players for pretty much everything banked on the simple fact that they don't live that long without being recharged. Same thing with cell phones. And now research says that a huge percent of people are going to go with a device that combines the two, already crappy, battery life devices into one? Well, I for one, won't be buying into a device like this. I have a MP3 player for specific reasons different than a cell phone. To me, they need to be two totally different devices.
A "Razr iPod" just sounds like something that will suck my life away faster than it will be able be able to play the shortest song in my playlist.