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Old 02-16-2006, 01:57 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Default current trends...

When most people go to buy a computer, the first thing they think about is "will this system be 'future proof'?" I thought that when building mine, and i am sure that you thought it too. After all, it is the most important thing if you are going to put out the money. But how fast does technology move? Is it really worth spending a few extra dollars for that 4600+ instead of the 4400+, or maybe buying the 7800gtx instead of the 7800gt? In retrospect, that choice will not matter one bit, because keeping up with technology is basically impossible unless you're someone like bill gates, who keeps changing up technology!

the theme here is "if the current trend continues, in 50 years (2056)....". please note that this is either asuming that these "sequences" are arithmatic or in some cases, geometric depending on what is most appropriate. (yes, i am a student... if you dont remember the difference google for math help :-p)

1. 256 bit (32 BYTES if i am not mistaken) processors will be reveiled to the world in 2042, we will be on the verge (1 year away) from 512 bit (64 bytes)
*previus trend: first 32 bit processor in 1985, first 64 in 2004, 19 year gap*

2. The average amount of RAM will be 91.09 terabytes (if geometic - remember in the 80's, 1 mb of RAM was... "wow...") or 45 gigs (if arithmatic)
*in 1998, 128mb=1024mb today. 128mb(x)^8years=1024: x=1.297: 128mb(1.297)^52years=91.09 tb.......
arithmatic: 1024-128=896mb: 896*52=46592mb: ans+128=46720mb: answer/1024=45.625gb*

3. Microsoft will have released 20 more operating systems or "second editions"
*95-98=3 years, 98-98SE=1 year (i think..) 98SE-2000=~1.5 years, 2000-xp=~1.5 years, xp-vista=5 years, mean=2.4 years every release*

4. Hard Drives will be able to hold about 88tb (geometric) or
*in 1998, 30gb=300gb today. 30(x)^8=300: x^8=10: x=1.333: 30(1.333)^52 = 88.65tb: arithmatic: 300-30=270gb difference: 270/8years=33.75gb increase each year: 33.75*52=1755gb: ans+30=1785gb: ans/1024=1.743 tb*

5. the Geforce 40 series will be this years hot item!
*mean for new series NUMBER is 50years/1.5=33.33: 33.33+7=40.33: rounded down (cannot have part of a series) = 40*

Intel's Stock v.s. AMD's Stock (past 10 years)

at the rate AMD's stock is going up, they'll have money to finally advertise on a national scale... yesssssss

7. GPU's will be clocked at 4.175 GHz
*every generation adds approximatelly 75 MHz (yes, i am aware more expensive models will be more than 75 MHz better). 75*50=3175 MHz: ans+450 (average for todays gpu's)=4200 MHz = 4.2 GHz*

8. AMD will release approximatelly 40 more processors, 4/5 of which you will most likely own :-)
*on average, .33 years per processor family (3 processors/year) (note, family is not "athlon 64," but instead "x2," "xp," "turion," "FX," or the good old "athlon 64 xxxx+," etc etc. also, i have never bought Intel, therefore i have no idea of their history... i would imagine they release processors about the same time as AMD to comptete with them...)*

9. 203,600,000 domains will be using PHP, just like this one!
*200,000 in march 2000, 2,000,000 in march of 2005. 2 million-200k=18,000,000 domains added since 2000, 18 million/5years=3,600,000 users added each year * 51 years=183,600,000 + 20,000,000=203,600,000 users*

10. Laptops will STILL be a couple of years behind desktops :-D
*because laptops always have been, and always will... if someone wants to figure out approximatelly how many years they have been behind (i would guess laptops are advanceing faster than desktops because the road is already paved for them) go ahead and post it and i'll edit mine or something*

11. Make your own and post it. Make sure to show mathmatical proof in some way, dont just estimate or give a number.

Well thats all i could come up with for tonight... i need to hit the hay. If you see any errors like "average memory back in '98 was 256mb, not 128" or an error in my calculations, PLEASE tell me. I would hate to misinform myself as well as the fellow computer lovers here.

I can only hope that this caused you, the reader, to think about the rate technology moves and analize it in another way.


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Old 02-16-2006, 07:57 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Well, I realize that complete accuracy wasn't the goal, so I'll not even try to pick you apart. That's a very interesting projection! Entertaining if nothing else.



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Old 02-16-2006, 09:31 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Wow you surely spent alot of time on that. Nice work
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Old 02-16-2006, 09:46 AM   #4 (permalink)
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I do believe HDDs are up to at least 1 TB in storage today. Not just 300 GB. Unless your talking about averages.

Other than that, idk, looks interesting.
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Old 02-16-2006, 05:00 PM   #5 (permalink)
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yea, i meant on average... in 98 they had more than 30gb too... but not many mid-high end gaming machines had it

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Old 02-16-2006, 05:18 PM   #6 (permalink)
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I can believe that.
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Old 02-16-2006, 05:43 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Thats very good. Save that and post it on many other forums .
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Old 02-16-2006, 08:02 PM   #8 (permalink)
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lol, im a true forum-tech user... i do not belong to any other forums.... your more then welcome to post my calculations and such on another forum, i really don't care at all

fight for anti-copywrite!! lol

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Old 02-16-2006, 08:21 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Yeah TF all the way! Boo copywrites...yay piracy!

ANYway, you should definitely make a PRICE / RELEASE chart. Showing how technology deppreciates over time.
starting out WAY over priced (OVERRATED)
then rapidly droping (Something better just came out...)
to leveling out (Midmarket rush)
then dropping hard again (OBSOLETE!)

The main goal being to predict how much a system will cost to build in x months considering its release price, time since release etc. We can even call you....

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Old 02-16-2006, 08:31 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Lol, nice work. But in 50 years who knows what will happen. None of us can even fathom what a computer will be like. Technology will change so that computers won't even resemble a computer today.

With the rate technology advances I'm guessing there will be some fricken huge virtual world you go into and I don't even know. This could be bad though with all the crazy stuff that would be going on in that virtual world. I dunno maybe the matrix will come true lol.

It's kind of scary thinking about what a computer will be like in 50 years.

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