When most people go to buy a computer, the first thing they think about is "will this system be 'future proof'?" I thought that when building mine, and i am sure that you thought it too. After all, it is the most important thing if you are going to put out the money. But how fast does technology move? Is it really worth spending a few extra dollars for that 4600+ instead of the 4400+, or maybe buying the 7800gtx instead of the 7800gt? In retrospect, that choice will not matter one bit, because keeping up with technology is basically impossible unless you're someone like bill gates, who keeps changing up technology!
the theme here is "if the current trend continues, in 50 years (2056)....". please note that this is either asuming that these "sequences" are arithmatic or in some cases, geometric depending on what is most appropriate. (yes, i am a student... if you dont remember the difference google for math help :-p)
1. 256 bit (32 BYTES if i am not mistaken) processors will be reveiled to the world in 2042, we will be on the verge (1 year away) from 512 bit (64 bytes)
*previus trend: first 32 bit processor in 1985, first 64 in 2004, 19 year gap*
2. The average amount of RAM will be 91.09 terabytes (if geometic - remember in the 80's, 1 mb of RAM was... "wow...") or 45 gigs (if arithmatic)
*in 1998, 128mb=1024mb today. 128mb(x)^8years=1024: x=1.297: 128mb(1.297)^52years=91.09 tb.......
arithmatic: 1024-128=896mb: 896*52=46592mb: ans+128=46720mb: answer/1024=45.625gb*
3. Microsoft will have released 20 more operating systems or "second editions"
*95-98=3 years, 98-98SE=1 year (i think..) 98SE-2000=~1.5 years, 2000-xp=~1.5 years, xp-vista=5 years, mean=2.4 years every release*
4. Hard Drives will be able to hold about 88tb (geometric) or
*in 1998, 30gb=300gb today. 30(x)^8=300: x^8=10: x=1.333: 30(1.333)^52 = 88.65tb: arithmatic: 300-30=270gb difference: 270/8years=33.75gb increase each year: 33.75*52=1755gb: ans+30=1785gb: ans/1024=1.743 tb*
5. the Geforce 40 series will be this years hot item!
*mean for new series NUMBER is 50years/1.5=33.33: 33.33+7=40.33: rounded down (cannot have part of a series) = 40*
Intel's Stock v.s. AMD's Stock (past 10 years)
at the rate AMD's stock is going up, they'll have money to finally advertise on a national scale... yesssssss
7. GPU's will be clocked at 4.175 GHz
*every generation adds approximatelly 75 MHz (yes, i am aware more expensive models will be more than 75 MHz better). 75*50=3175 MHz: ans+450 (average for todays gpu's)=4200 MHz = 4.2 GHz*
8. AMD will release approximatelly 40 more processors, 4/5 of which you will most likely own :-)
*on average, .33 years per processor family (3 processors/year) (note, family is not "athlon 64," but instead "x2," "xp," "turion," "FX," or the good old "athlon 64 xxxx+," etc etc. also, i have never bought Intel, therefore i have no idea of their history... i would imagine they release processors about the same time as AMD to comptete with them...)*
9. 203,600,000 domains will be using PHP, just like this one!
*200,000 in march 2000, 2,000,000 in march of 2005. 2 million-200k=18,000,000 domains added since 2000, 18 million/5years=3,600,000 users added each year * 51 years=183,600,000 + 20,000,000=203,600,000 users*
10. Laptops will STILL be a couple of years behind desktops :-D
*because laptops always have been, and always will... if someone wants to figure out approximatelly how many years they have been behind (i would guess laptops are advanceing faster than desktops because the road is already paved for them) go ahead and post it and i'll edit mine or something*
11. Make your own and post it. Make sure to show mathmatical proof in some way, dont just estimate or give a number.
Well thats all i could come up with for tonight... i need to hit the hay. If you see any errors like "average memory back in '98 was 256mb, not 128" or an error in my calculations, PLEASE tell me. I would hate to misinform myself as well as the fellow computer lovers here.
I can only hope that this caused you, the reader, to think about the rate technology moves and analize it in another way.