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Old 02-02-2011, 05:37 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default Steelers will win Super Bowl XLV, predicts Madden 11

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Forget Punxsutawney Phil -- Madden 11, EA's pigskin prognosticator, has emerged from its burrow just in time to make its annual wintery pick.

And it's going with Pittsburgh.

According to the simulation, the Steelers storm back from an early fourth quarter deficit to narrowly beat the Green Bay Packers, 24-20, nabbing their record seventh Vince Lombardi Trophy. With five catches for 111 yards -- including the game-winning TD -- Steelers wide receiver Mike Wallace wins the MVP.

EA Sports has been using Madden to predict the Super Bowl winner for years now, and the famed football franchise is proving eerily good at it. Not only has Madden correctly picked six of the last seven winners, it's actually been quite close on the final scores in a few of them.
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Do you guys think this is going to hold true?
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Old 02-02-2011, 06:03 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Default Re: Steelers will win Super Bowl XLV, predicts Madden 11

i'm sure if they ran it again it would come out with different results.. my problem with simulators is that it takes the teams on paper, not any of the emotional things that are involved. for instance, the steelers squad has been to a couple superbowls already so they have a good idea of what it takes to win, whereas the packers are relative superbowl noobs. aaron rodgers is new to this level of the playoffs, a sub-par running game which has been taken over by a young running back, are all things that can create issues that madden can't simulate..

If the packers can hold their composure and play a mistake free game like they did all throughout the playoffs, then i think the madden simulation will hold relatively close, but a young team against a proven steelers team who's succeeded at this level will be a new challenge. I don't really think the packers will have a lead for any amount of time of the game.

and i don't think any receiver for either team will have more than 50 yards. with both teams having superb secondary's I think the focus of game will be short passes in the middle of the field to slot receivers and tight ends, and little dump off's to backs coming out of hte backfield.
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Old 02-02-2011, 06:17 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Default Re: Steelers will win Super Bowl XLV, predicts Madden 11

While I agree most of the Packers players are noobs who haven't been this far yet, calling the Packers as a team noobs makes little sense considering they used to hold Superbowl records. But that's the franchise and not the team I know.

But on topic, what you have said doesn't exactly contradict the results which makes me more inclined to believe this simulation. Even though I'm a Packers fan. :P
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Old 02-02-2011, 06:30 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Default Re: Steelers will win Super Bowl XLV, predicts Madden 11

i mean it comes down to how hte packers prepare and execute. if they get phased by the big stage and don't do those things, which the simulation can't take into account, then it will be a one sided game in favor of the steelers.

I'm not saying I disagree with the simulation because I don't think that either team will be unprepared or unable to execute their game plan, I'm just saying that I wouldn't put a lot of weight into it because they can't account for a first time super bowl squad (as in a team who has 0 super bowl experience) and the learning curve that might show itself which an experienced team like the steelers could easily take advantage of and jump off to a quick and large lead.


If the steelers can fluster the packers and create some turnovers early and get some points on the board then I think it's game over. the steelers are too good to let up a large lead, especially in the super bowl.
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Old 02-02-2011, 06:56 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Default Re: Steelers will win Super Bowl XLV, predicts Madden 11

Im not disagreeing. You're absolutely right about nerves being a huge influence in the outcome of a game especially in this scope. I think we're on the same page actually.

I just wonder if they run the simulation more than once so that a one in a million doesn't slip through.
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Old 02-02-2011, 07:18 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Default Re: Steelers will win Super Bowl XLV, predicts Madden 11

i dunno, i mean there are millions of variables to take into account. each play could be anything from a touchdown for one team, or a turnover leading to a touchdown for the other. potentially what they might do is run a bunch of them and then pick one that's towards the median of what's expected, and also one that provides some entertainment.
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Old 02-04-2011, 10:36 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Default Re: Steelers will win Super Bowl XLV, predicts Madden 11

I think Green Bay will win.

Both teams played NE throughout the regular season, both teams lost. The difference was Green Bay only lost by a few points at Gillette stadium in Foxboro while the Steelers lost by a big margin in Pittsburgh.

But, it is the SB anything can happen.
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Old 02-04-2011, 10:56 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Default Re: Steelers will win Super Bowl XLV, predicts Madden 11

When we ( yes live in Pittsburgh- so not real objective) played NE - we were pretty banged up. But, that being said, I am glad the Jets beat NE because we have a bad record against them. Of coarse, several of those losses to NE may be attributed in some part to the cheating video taping issue. Certainly Pittsburgh has the edge in experience, but they have a big problem with being consistent - and without Pouncey, the game will be fun to watch. Troy Polomalu is much more injured than is reported - so he has not played well in the last 4 games. If Green Bay can give Rogers time ( depending on the referees calling holding or not - especially against Harrison - who they hate) I actually give the edge to them.
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Old 02-05-2011, 06:23 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Default Re: Steelers will win Super Bowl XLV, predicts Madden 11

the pats didn't win 3 superbowls in 4 years by cheating against every team. polomalu's played fine in the last 4 games. none of the teams they played had any major vertical pass plays which means that clark and polomalu are doing their job. and rogers is just like rothlisburger, he doesn't need to oline to give him a lot of time, give him 2-3 seconds to throw the ball, if it's not there he'll either dump it to a back out of the backfield or scramble and find an open reciever.
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Old 02-06-2011, 01:00 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Default Re: Steelers will win Super Bowl XLV, predicts Madden 11

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Originally Posted by acerinpa View Post
When we ( yes live in Pittsburgh- so not real objective) played NE - we were pretty banged up. But, that being said, I am glad the Jets beat NE because we have a bad record against them. Of coarse, several of those losses to NE may be attributed in some part to the cheating video taping issue. Certainly Pittsburgh has the edge in experience, but they have a big problem with being consistent - and without Pouncey, the game will be fun to watch. Troy Polomalu is much more injured than is reported - so he has not played well in the last 4 games. If Green Bay can give Rogers time ( depending on the referees calling holding or not - especially against Harrison - who they hate) I actually give the edge to them.
The Packers started their backup QB against the Patriots, so they were also banged up. I'm quite sure that if the Packers were able to start Aaron Rodgers they would have won that game.

Saying the Patriots got an advantage by cheating is simply ignorant. Many former players and coaches along with current players and coaches stated that what the Patriots did didn't give them an advantage. Heck, even Jimmy Johnson (two time SB winning coach with the Cowboys) admitted to doing what the Patriots did and he also said that it didn't give his team an advantage. If what the Patriots did really gave them an advantage by logic they wouldn't be nearly as good. The Patriots are a combined 51-13 (.797) which is one of the best (if not they best) record over the past four seasons. During the time that they supposedly taped the opponents (01 season through 06 season) they were 70-26 (.729). If the taping helped the Patriots their win - loss ratio should go down and it went up. So saying the Patriots cheated or got an advantage from cheating really means nothing now.
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