My experience has been about three years with any video card. I have used the following since 1998.
Voodoo 3 - 1998
Voodoo 5 - 2000 (only reason I bought this is I upgaded another comp I had so I put the Voodoo 3 in it. I was getting 100fps on Quake 3 with decent settings.
9700 Pro - 2003 was playing Quake 4 and Doom 3 on good settings @ 800x600 and very playable. Serious Sam played well too, just locked up on startup most of the time
7800 GTX 512 - 2006
So based on that history I figure I don't need another card until 2009 unless they seriously ramp the graphics in the next 1 1/2 - 2 years, which hasn't been the case from what I have seen.